segunda-feira, 31 de dezembro de 2007

Ameaça ou oportunidade dramática mundial

Ameaça ou oportunidade dramática mundial

PAULO LUDMER

Para evitar um colapso já desenhado, a humanidade terá de ser outra. Se nada mudar, não haverá energia para todos, em toda parte

VOLTO DO 20º Congresso Mundial de Energia, em Roma (Itália), com a mesma percepção dramática construída nessa congregação nos últimos 18 anos: o mundo continuará insustentável enquanto a integração e a interdependência entre países, regiões e todo o planeta se mantiverem inalcançáveis. Portanto, a natureza e os acasos seguirão cobrando, veementes, ações da juventude, inovação e busca de soluções.
A inclusão de novos 1 bilhão de chineses, além de centenas de milhões de outros asiáticos, africanos e latinos, na sociedade de consumo não permite que a equação do fornecimento de energia se equilibre. Para que, diariamente, toda mulher use um conjunto de cosméticos, cada homem beba uma garrafa de cerveja e use seu automóvel, um colapso se configurará no horizonte próximo.
Para evitar um colapso já desenhado, a humanidade terá de ser outra mediante: revolução de códigos e valores; nova educação e ideologia; rápida introdução de profunda inovação tecnológica; adoção de regramentos e objetivos coletivos supranacionais, de longo prazo, em âmbito mundial. Se nada mudar, não haverá energia para todos, em toda parte, em todo o tempo. Tampouco água potável.
Energias novas? A fusão nuclear demandará uma ou mais décadas, pois ainda não sabemos lidar com materiais em altíssimas temperaturas.
As células de hidrogênio bebem energia demais. Etanol e biodiesel sugam água, desmatam e roubam áreas de alimentos (pelo menos fora do Brasil). Vide a alta no preço mundial do milho por causa dos EUA e seu programa de produção de álcool. Integração? Basta aferirmos a cena em nosso quintal da América Latina.
As assimetrias entre os países são jurídicas, ambientais, trabalhistas, monetárias, tributárias etc. Não temos um Parlamento (igual ao da Comunidade Européia) nem arbitragem. Pior: Venezuela, Equador e Bolívia desmancharam o quesito fundamental, a confiança, pelo modo como tratam contratos internacionais teoricamente sagrados. A Argentina deixou à míngua o Brasil e o Chile no item gás natural. O Paraguai ameaça o Brasil com Itaipu. Vale dizer, as interconexões energéticas continentais, tão relevantes para a formação de um bloco regional competitivo, estão na lona ou na perspectiva de um bolivarianismo do passado.
O Conselho Mundial de Energia recomenda -escuto desde Montreal (1989)- a constante transferência de tecnologia para quem carece de modo a diminuir as ameaças descontroladas. Surpreendentemente, em Roma, uma delegada do Quênia afirmou que seu país ainda não ingressou sequer na era do diesel...
A propósito, qualquer súbita mudança em tecnologia pode surpreender o mundo do álcool e do biodiesel, convertendo seus ativos em micos.
Uma lufada de otimismo veio da Alemanha: a eficiência do diesel e da gasolina aumentará entre 20% e 30%.
Mas e o crescimento da população ou da frota? E a inclusão? Somente a proibição da produção e circulação de carros superiores aos modelos 1.0 liberaria petróleo à razão de um Iraque: o texano concordaria em renunciar à liberdade individual?
Uma missão fundamental da ciência da informação será reter trabalhadores atuando em casa, sem deslocamentos. Ainda assim, o transporte de massa deve ser multiplicado.
Se o mercado não faz políticas públicas, quem as fará? Meia dúzia de funcionários ungidos e reunidos num gabinete? Um órgão mundial?
Pois, segundo a qualificada AIE (Agência Internacional de Energia), em 2030, nada menos do que 60% da matriz energética da China será de carvão mineral, e uns 20% no caso da Índia. Esse é o fruto da volatilidade dos preços internacionais do petróleo e o espaço que se abre para carvão e átomos manejados. Pelo menos uns 35% da China será nuclear, pouco mais do que a média mundial, de 30%.
Observe-se que China e Índia, juntas, aumentarão dos 12% para os 35% sua absorção de toda a energia do mundo, de 2006 a 2030.
Deixaremos de abordar a inexistência de fonte de recursos para financiar a expansão da oferta de energia no mundo. Só para ilustrar sua complexidade: cresce o risco e, portanto, somem os capitais para expandir a prospecção, o refino e a logística de transporte, armazenagem e distribuição no Oriente conflagrado ou na América Latina desregrada e socialista.
Em decorrência, as ameaças do terrorismo e do populismo inviabilizam um gasoduto terrestre latino, enquanto se viabiliza um virtual tubo de navios enfileirados sobre o mar, trazendo gás criogenizado das instáveis Nigéria e Argélia para Pernambuco e Rio de Janeiro.
Infelizmente, os caminhos coordenados, articulados e coesos para a sobrevivência da humanidade e preservação do planeta permanecem inverossímeis entre as heranças malditas que legamos aos nossos descendentes. O 21º congresso será em Montreal, em 2010. A ver.


PAULO LUDMER, 63, jornalista e engenheiro, é consultor, professor da Faap e convidado do Mackenzie, da PUC e da USP e escritor. Foi diretor-executivo da Abrace (Associação Brasileira de Grandes Consumidores Industriais de Energia) de 1986 a 2006.
www.pauloludmer.com.br

sábado, 29 de dezembro de 2007

Choking on Growth - Part X: Beijing’s Olympic Quest: Turn Smoggy Sky Blue

The New York Times

December 29, 2007

Beijing’s Olympic Quest: Turn Smoggy Sky Blue

BEIJING — Every day, monitoring stations across the city measure air pollution to determine if the skies above this national capital can officially be designated blue. It is not an act of whimsy: with Beijing preparing to play host to the 2008 Olympic Games, the official Blue Sky ratings are the city’s own measuring stick for how well it is cleaning up its polluted air.

Thursday did not bring good news. The gray, acrid skies rated an eye-reddening 421 on a scale of 500, with 500 being the worst. Friday rated 500. Both days far exceeded pollution levels deemed safe by the World Health Organization. In Beijing, officials warned residents to stay indoors until Saturday, but residents here are accustomed to breathing foul air. One man flew a kite in Tiananmen Square.

For Beijing officials, Thursday was especially depressing because the city was hoping to celebrate an environmental victory. In recent years, Beijing has steadily increased its Blue Sky days. The city needs one more, defined as scoring below 101, to reach its goal of 245 Blue Sky days this year. These improving ratings are how Beijing hopes to reassure the world that Olympic athletes will not be gasping for breath next August.

“We’re definitely hoping for the best,” said Jon Kolb, a member of the Canadian Olympic Committee, “but preparing for the worst.”

For the world’s Olympians, Beijing’s air is a performance issue. The concern is that respiratory problems could impede athletic performance and prevent records from being broken. For the city’s estimated 12 million residents, pollution is an inescapable health and quality-of-life issue. Skepticism about the validity of the Blue Sky ratings is common. Moreover, the concern is whether the city can clean itself up long after the Games are over.

Beijing has long ranked as one of the world’s most polluted cities. To win the Games, Beijing promised a “Green Olympics” and undertook environmental initiatives now considered models for the rest of the country. But greening Beijing has not meant slowing it down. Officials also have encouraged an astonishing urbanization boom that has made environmental gains seem modest, if not illusory.

Beijing is like an athlete trying to get into shape by walking on a treadmill yet eating double cheeseburgers at the same time. Polluting factories have been moved or closed. But auto emissions are rising as the city adds up to 1,200 new cars and trucks every day. Dirty, coal-burning furnaces have been replaced, lowering the city’s sulfur dioxide emissions. But fine-particle pollution has been exacerbated by a staggering citywide construction binge that shows no signs of letting up.

China’s unsolved riddle is how to reconcile fast economic growth with environmental protection. But Beijing’s Olympic deadline means the city needs an immediate answer. The ruling Communist Party envisions the Games as a public relations showcase and is leaving no detail untended. Scientists are cross-breeding chrysanthemums to ensure that flowers bloom in August.

Now Beijing is also going to try to manipulate air quality. For months, scientists have treated the city like a laboratory, testing wind patterns and atmospheric structure, while pinpointing local and regional pollution sources. Olympics contingency plans have been approved for Beijing and surrounding provinces. Details are not public, but officials have discussed shutting down factories and restricting traffic during the Games.

“We are determined to ensure that the air conditions meet the necessary standards in August 2008,” Liu Qi, president of the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Games, told the International Olympic Committee’s executive board this month.

Beijing residents overwhelmingly support the Games and take for granted that officials will do what is necessary to ensure clean air. Last August, the city removed a million cars from roads during a four-day test intended to gauge pollution and traffic. But people also know that any emergency measures have a limited shelf life.

“Yes, I heard about it,” said an engineer at one factory that may temporarily be shut down. He refused to identify himself because he was criticizing government policy. “It is like you invite some guests to your home, and hide all your children underneath the bed to make the house look nicer. If all the polluting factories are shut down for the Olympics, there will be a major pollution outbreak afterward when all the factories restart, right?”

Beijing officials say the Olympics will have a lasting and positive environmental legacy on the city. International Olympic Committee officials acknowledge that air quality remains a problem, but they say the air would be far worse without improvements made for the Games. “The general trend is improvement,” said Simon Balderstone, an environmental adviser for the I.O.C.

But pollution is expected to remain a major, long-term challenge as Beijing’s population may eventually exceed 20 million people. Scientists also say the city will never be able to clean itself up if surrounding industrial provinces are not cleaned up, too.

Blue skies, in other words, will remain a challenge.

Growth Offsets Gains

In July 2001, Beijing won the right to serve as the host of the 2008 Games, a victory that carried a touch of vindication. Eight years earlier, the International Olympic Committee had rejected Beijing’s first bid for a variety of reasons, including the city’s polluted environment.

This time, Beijing organizers promised a “Green Olympics.”

“Beijing has come a long way since its last bid in 1993,” said Wang Wei, a senior Beijing Olympics official, speaking at the city’s final Olympic presentation in Moscow in 2001. “The city has taken giant steps to fight pollution caused by industrialization and economic growth.”

Beijing’s environmental program had begun in 1997 and became the centerpiece of the city’s Olympic environmental commitments. Urban sewage treatment has doubled since 2001. Use of natural gas has jumped 38-fold as city officials have converted thousands of dirty coal-fired furnaces and boilers. Factories have been shut down or relocated to the suburbs. Millions of trees have been planted.

“For many years, the city had few environmental rules,” said Mr. Balderstone, the I.O.C. environmental adviser, who regularly consults with Beijing officials. “It’s like they are playing catch-up on a lot of these measures.”

But Beijing’s Olympic bid also intensified a stunning urban boom. Since 2000, Beijing’s gross domestic product has jumped 144 percent, according to Beijing Olympic officials. New office buildings and apartment towers seem to rise every week. More than 1.7 billion square feet of new construction has been started since 2002, most of it unrelated to the Olympics.

Cleaner Coal, but More of It

The emerging cityscape is often dazzling, but also energy intensive and polluting. Beijing now requires factories and power plants to burn cleaner, low-sulfur coal, but it had also hoped to reduce overall coal consumption in the years before the Olympics. Instead, the city’s coal consumption peaked at 30 million tons last year. Beijing also has only one office tower that qualifies under international and national energy efficiency standards as a green building. Construction, meanwhile, is expected to continue at a rapid pace.

“I think there will be another 20 to 30 years of urbanization,” said Wu Weijia, a professor at Tsinghua University’s Institute of Urban Studies. “The scale of construction in Beijing will not slow down after the Olympics.”

Meanwhile, an explosion of car ownership has wrought gridlocked traffic and a halo of auto fumes. Beijing now has more than three million vehicles and is adding more than 400,000 new cars and trucks each year. The city’s reliance on cars and trucks leaves its air with few reprieves. As in other Chinese cities, heavy trucks can only enter at night. Diesel exhaust is so severe that Beijing’s levels of PM 2.5, a tiny particulate deemed potentially harmful to health, is highest between midnight and 3 a.m., according to one survey.

Beijing is fighting auto pollution by instituting China’s highest vehicle emissions standards. Nearly 79,000 new taxis with lower emissions have replaced older, outdated models. But Beijing has been unwilling to discourage private car ownership by instituting exorbitant fees as Shanghai has done. Depending on the car, license plates in Shanghai can cost as much as $7,000; as a result, Shanghai adds about one-fourth as many cars per year as Beijing.

Beijing’s problems are compounded because its public transportation system was neglected for years. Now, the city is expanding subway lines and finishing a rail line from the airport to downtown, but car ownership is expected to keep rising.

“If you discourage people from having a car, the public transportation system would be overburdened,” said Mr. Wu, the Tsinghua professor.

Taking Pollution’s Measure

Mr. Kolb, the Canadian Olympic official, spent much of August in Beijing trying to answer the question hanging over the city as the Games approach: Has air quality actually improved?

An environmental physiologist, Mr. Kolb visited several stadiums, and sneaked into a few others, to measure pollution with a small monitoring device. On Aug. 5, his measurement of fine particles pollution, or PM 10, reached 200, roughly four times above the level deemed safe by the World Health Organization.

“We’re worried,” Mr. Kolb said. Of Beijing air pollution, he added: “There’s no doubt about it. It’s off the charts.”

A decade ago, Beijing introduced the Blue Sky program to measure sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and PM 10. Under the system, monitors take regular readings of each pollutant and then calculate a 24-hour average for each. The daily Blue Sky rating is determined by whichever pollutant has the highest 24-hour average.

For China’s authoritarian government, the system represented a breakthrough. But it is less stringent than air-quality indexes in the United States. Indeed, a day that rates “good” in Beijing would usually be rated polluted in the United States.

In 1998, Beijing recorded only 100 Blue Sky days. Each ensuing year, the city has improved the number until reaching the current 244 and pending. Cleaner coal has helped reduce sulfur dioxide by 25 percent since 2001. Nitrogen dioxide is also down. But Beijing’s biggest problem is PM 10 and other particulates, which are attributed to construction, industry and cars.

Average daily levels of PM 10 exceed national and W.H.O. standards. In 2004, the concentration of airborne particulates in Beijing equaled that of New York, Los Angeles, Washington, Chicago and Atlanta combined, according to the United States Embassy in Beijing. Earlier this year, a report by the United Nations Environment Program concluded that “air pollution is still the single largest environmental and public health issue affecting the city.”

“Particularly worrying are the levels of small particulate matter (PM 10) in the atmosphere, which is severely deleterious to public health,” the report stated.

The Blue Sky system sets a maximum rating of 500, meaning that on the worst days the actual pollution level could be even higher. “Good” air in Beijing is any Blue Sky rating below 101. But even good air is often not very good; this year, Beijing has had 65 days that rated between 95 and 100. That bulge just inside the break point has attracted attention on Web sites and even at one foreign embassy, which compiled a statistical analysis casting doubt on the Blue Sky results, though the embassy’s officials refuse to discuss the findings.

Du Shaozhong, deputy director of Beijing’s Environmental Protection Bureau, said the ratings were not manipulated. “People used to ask me if the ratings are scientific, or if we are playing any tricks,” Mr. Du said. “But this is most advanced equipment in the world.”

Mr. Kolb said Olympic athletes were worried about ozone, which can inflame the respiratory tract and make it more difficult to breathe. But Beijing’s monitoring system does not measure ozone, nor does it measure the finer particulates known as PM 2.5.

This year, a team of Chinese and American scientists analyzed air quality issues for the Olympics and found that Beijing’s daily concentrations of PM 2.5 rated anywhere from 50 percent to 200 percent higher than American standards. Their study, published in the journal Atmospheric Environment, also found that ozone regularly exceeded levels deemed safe by American standards.

Studies are under way to assess the health impact of pollution in Beijing. One 2003 study warned that air pollution could be a major contributor to premature deaths related to chronic pulmonary disease, especially in the winter. Another study showed that visits to hospital emergency rooms rose on days with higher pollution levels.

On a recent afternoon at Beijing Hospital, Dr. Li Yi, a respiratory specialist, said he now saw 50 patients a day for respiratory problems compared with about half that a decade ago. He said asthma cases had increased sharply, as had the number of patients with nonsmoking-related lung cancer.

“You can’t say that pollution is the only reason,” Dr. Li said. “But nonsmoking-related lung cancer is now increasing more quickly.”

Beyond the Olympics

In August, Beijing marked the one-year countdown to the Games with a celebration at Tiananmen Square and several test competitions at different sites. Jacques Rogge, president of the I.O.C., applauded Beijing’s preparations, but also cautioned that pollution might force the postponement of some endurance sports.

Hu Fei, director of the Institute of Atmosphere Physics in Beijing, said any concern was misplaced. “Don’t worry about the Olympics,” Mr. Hu said, expressing confidence that contingency plans would produce clean air for the Games. “We need to be concerned about the long term.”

Mr. Hu said finding a long-term fix is difficult because of Beijing’s geography. Surrounded by mountains on three sides, Beijing depends on strong winds to disperse pollution. Yet winds also draw pollution into the city. The study in Atmospheric Environment estimated that as much as 60 percent of ozone detected at the National Stadium could be traced to outside provinces.

“Beijing is a pollution source itself, and it is surrounded by other pollution sources,” Mr. Hu said. “When you have wind, it brings in pollution from other sources. When you don’t have wind, the local pollution cannot disperse.”

Xu Jianping, 55, a business consultant, does not need to be told that Beijing is overrun with cars and construction. He is an avid in-line skater who enjoyed skating to work until pollution left him spitting out black phlegm. He went online and ordered a gas mask.

“But I don’t want to wear it,” said Mr. Xu, fearing his mask would be misinterpreted as a protest against the Olympics. “It would hurt China’s image.”

So until the Games are over, Mr. Xu is taking the bus to the office. He plans to vacation outside the city during the Games. Then, when life in Beijing returns to normal, he plans to resume skating to work — with his mask, if necessary.

Zhang Jing, Ma Yi and Huang Yuanxi contributed research.

segunda-feira, 24 de dezembro de 2007

Solução para o país é dar férias coletivas para todo o governo

ENTREVISTA DA 2ª/HENRY MAKSOUD

Solução para o país é dar férias coletivas para todo o governo

Para empresário, erro de Lula foi ter comprado um avião. Deveria ter comprado 15 para o governo viajar o mundo

O ESTILO polêmico, desafiador, anárquico continua o mesmo. Nos anos 70 e 80, em pleno regime autoritário, o nome Henry Maksoud foi sinônimo de crítica e independência. Dono da revista "Visão", um dos principais veículos de informação do país na época, e um programa de TV ao modelo "talk-show", no qual falava mais que os convidados, o empresário marcou época por sua defesa do liberalismo econômico. Admirador do economista e filósofo Friedrich August von Hayek, considerado o pai do neoliberalismo, de quem se tornou amigo, Maksoud ainda prega as mesmas idéias.
Em entrevista concedida no seu escritório do hotel Maksoud Plaza, que durante muito tempo foi ponto de referência de grandes empresários, banqueiros e políticos, Henry Maksoud, 78, continua o mesmo. Sem papa nas línguas.
Ao comparar os governos Lula e FHC, disse: "Se for para considerar o que o mundo pensa do Brasil, o governo do Lula é melhor. E, se for para considerar o que eu penso do Brasil, esse e o outro são umas merdas".

GUILHERME BARROS
COLUNISTA DA FOLHA

FOLHA - O senhor acha que a concepção liberal na economia pode ser considerada, hoje, vitoriosa?
HENRY MAKSOUD -
O conceito liberal que eu defendo não é o que se tem hoje. Essa bobagem chamada neoliberal não existe. Pode escrever. Neoliberal é besteira. Não existe essa asneira. O que aconteceu na Inglaterra e na Escócia é algo que poderia ser chamado de liberalismo clássico, mas aconteceu só lá. Foi apenas uma pequena mancha tão forte que as idéias foram para alguns outros lugares. Mas isso não quer dizer que, depois disso, o liberalismo clássico, a economia de mercado, espalhou-se pelo mundo. Não. Se você procurar onde existe a economia de mercado, vai ver só algumas manchas.

FOLHA - Nos Estados Unidos?
MAKSOUD -
É, mas aqui [no Brasil] nenhuma mancha.

FOLHA - No Brasil?
MAKSOUD -
No Brasil, zero. No Brasil, quase nenhuma mancha. Não, não existe. Aqui tem [no seu escritório], mas às vezes me vejo infectado porque vivo aqui.

FOLHA - Aqui onde?
MAKSOUD -
Aqui neste lugar onde estou [em seu escritório, no hotel]. Mas isso não quer dizer que eu exerço o que deveria se chamar de economia de mercado, até porque não posso exercer. Sou um prisioneiro. Vivo prisioneiro de um Estado, igual a um clube ao qual sou filiado compulsoriamente. Eu me revolto contra o Estado, mas eles me punem.

FOLHA - Como o sr. é punido?
MAKSOUD -
Me punem, eles punem você também. Você é punido quando, no fim do mês, não leva dinheiro para casa, leva dívida. Não trabalho livremente. Há coisas que não deveriam existir neste país.

FOLHA - Por exemplo?
MAKSOUD -
Aquele livro amarelo que está lá [aponta a estante em frente], a Consolidação das Leis Trabalhistas, só aqui existe isso e é um dos troços que vêm mantendo o país subdesenvolvido e, se continuar existindo, vai manter o país assim ao longo da vida. Não tem nada a ver com Justiça. É um troço estapafúrdio, travesseiro dos advogados. Segura o progresso e vai continuar segurando. O Brasil não cresce por causa disso. E também não tem como crescer por causa do sistema tributário.
Não tem como crescer por causa do sistema de formação de capital. Não temos um mercado de capitais no Brasil, banco privado. Todos os bancos são paraestatais. Os bancos existem só para ajudar o governo. Para haver economia de mercado, um dos elementos que o empreendedor precisa ter é capital. Aqui não existe. Aqui existe desestímulo à formação de capital fixo, ou seja, desestímulo à formação de poupança pelos indivíduos e pelas empresas. Tudo o que existe de formação de capital ou de poupança o governo lança mão para queimar, para jogar fora.

FOLHA - O mercado de capitais cresceu nestes últimos dois anos.
MAKSOUD -
Você quer dizer que os bancos têm tido lucros imensos? Isso não quer dizer que o mercado cresceu.

FOLHA - A Bolsa cresceu e mais investidores entraram no mercado.
MAKSOUD -
Por que estão entrando no mercado? Porque os juros nos EUA baixaram e há muita liquidez no mundo. Então, eles vêm para um país onde os juros estão lá na estratosfera, e aqui a regra, a lei brasileira, por um milagre qualquer ou por inteligência, diz que você pode vir com o dinheiro de fora na Bolsa, lucra e leva embora que não vamos impedir. Enquanto mantiverem isso, vai ser esse troço e nós, índios selvagens, eu me coloco junto só para você não se sentir ofendido, julgamos que a Bolsa está crescendo, que a coisa está formidável. É, simplesmente, um jogo de troca de papel. Troca de papel não faz crescer fábrica, emprego, não me faz poder melhorar meus negócios. Estou há 15 anos tentando construir três hotéis formidáveis e não consigo. Só tem gente atrapalhando e eu não consigo fazer. O pior é que são hotéis viáveis.

FOLHA - Onde seriam os hotéis?
MAKSOUD -
Manaus, Angra dos Reis e Bauru.

FOLHA - E por que o sr. não consegue fazer?
MAKSOUD -
Ninguém acredita nas dificuldades que tenho. Agora, sou teimoso, nasci teimoso. Vou brigando, até porque me faz bem para saúde. Se vir que estou errado, desisto, mas, se não estou errado, continuo na briga.

FOLHA - Qual é a sua avaliação do governo Lula?
MAKSOUD -
Quando ele foi eleito com aquela força toda, o mundo ficou apavorado. E muitos brasileiros pensaram que iríamos ter aqui uma nova Cuba ou um troço parecido com o que agora é o Hugo Chávez lá na Venezuela ou esse outro na Bolívia [Evo Morales]. Ficaram todos preocupados com o que ia acontecer. E é surpreendente o que aconteceu de lá para cá, para todo mundo.

FOLHA - Inclusive para o senhor?
MAKSOUD -
Para mim, também. Quando comecei a ouvir o Lula falar de improviso, no começo ele errava muito nas expressões, mas falava, transmitia as idéias de forma simples, de improviso. Não decorava nada e falava o dia inteiro. Cara inteligente. Surpreendeu em vários aspectos. É preciso dar um crédito desgraçado para ele. Ele fez uma jogada, a mais brilhante que já possa ter feito um político. Ele colocou na presidência do Banco Central um homem que tinha recém-saído da presidência de um dos maiores bancos do mundo, que era o BankBoston. Ele falou: "Puxa, esse cara tem ambição política". Ele imaginou o seguinte: "Não podemos colocar um dos nossos, porque há cobras e lagartos dentro do BC, precisa ser alguém que saiba mexer com esse troço de dinheiro". Imagina como aquele troço é supercomplicado. E puseram o sr. Henrique Meirelles. Salvou o Brasil. Você viu que, de uma hora para outra, desanuviou? Você não vê isso como jornalista?
O mundo está desanuviado. Não se desconfia. Ele [Lula] vai lá e está falando com o mundo inteiro. Veste aquela casaca e tal e vai lá com o rei, a rainha. Você pensou uns anos atrás o Lula e a mulher dele andando lá pelos jantares de coisa real, pelo mundo inteiro? Só tem um defeito sério o Lula. Ele só cometeu um grande erro.

FOLHA - Qual foi o erro de Lula?
MAKSOUD -
Comprou só um avião. Ele deveria ter comprado uns 15 aviões e colocado o governo o tempo todo viajando.

FOLHA - Por quê?
MAKSOUD -
Aí não teríamos governo. Você está rindo, eu estou falando sério. Sou anarquista. As pessoas pensam que anarquia é bagunça. Anarquia é um sistema de governo. Quer dizer governo mínimo. Você já imaginou o governo viajando o tempo todo e em aviões bacanas por esses lugares todos? Anos atrás, uns amigos me acusavam de eu ficar criticando, escrevendo, falando e nunca apontar uma solução. E aí dei uma solução: férias coletivas para o governo. Vocês ficam rindo, mas falo sério. O Brasil tem um monte de reservas em dólar, não tem? Bilhões e não tem o que fazer. Olha o mapa do mundo [aponta um mapa-múndi], há umas ilhas ali do lado da Austrália, do lado do Pacífico, compra umas belas ilhas e põe os governos lá em férias.

FOLHA - É mais barato?
MAKSOUD -
Mais barato que uma penada por dia que cada um deles dá. Cada penada custa os olhos da cara para o povo brasileiro. Cada hora que ele assinam um troço daqueles custa um monte de dinheiro. Manda os caras de férias em dez anos renováveis. As pessoas riem e pensam que estou brincando quando falo isso.

FOLHA - Qual a sua avaliação do governo Fernando Henrique?
MAKSOUD -
Em termos de resultado, se for para considerar o que o mundo pensa do Brasil, o governo do Lula é melhor. E, se for para considerar o que eu penso do Brasil, este e o outro são umas merdas. Tem muita intervenção, coisas que não deveriam existir e que deveriam ter sido mudadas. Por exemplo, a Previdência deveria ser extinta, acabar. Extinta e criada uma Nova Previdência, vamos chamar, privada. O mundo inteiro está fazendo isso, nos moldes do Chile. Até a China comunista estuda o modelo chileno.

FOLHA - O sr. já travou algumas disputas, não? Do governo militar, por exemplo, foi um crítico feroz.
MAKSOUD -
Não, fui crítico de todo mundo. Vamos ser sinceros, não sou um crítico desse ou daquele. Sou independente, e as pessoas não gostam de gente independente. Agora, independência não quer dizer arrogância, não quer dizer soberba, quer dizer independência. Se alguém quiser falar comigo, falo. Se a prostituta dona Joaquina quiser falar comigo, falo com ela. Se o que ela quiser for um troço besta, falo: "Olha, dona, não é comigo". Estou agora no teatro, por exemplo. No teatro, o trabalho da mídia é arrasador. O silêncio é mais arrasador que a palavra falada. Já sentiu um sapo frio em cima de você?

FOLHA - Com o sr. resume a peça?
MAKSOUD -
É uma crônica musical, relacionada com as atividades dos eventos que o Maksoud Plaza teve nestes últimos quase 30 anos e só o Maksoud Plaza possui esse acervo musical mostrado na peça. Ninguém mais. É mostrado numa forma de uma peça teatral musical ["Emoções que o Tempo não Apaga", escrita e dirigida pelo próprio empresário, teve sua temporada interrompida no período de festas e volta a entrar em cartaz no dia 11].

FOLHA - Uma curiosidade: o que aconteceu com a Hidroservice? A empresa foi descontinuada?
MAKSOUD -
Ela não foi descontinuada, o Brasil foi descontinuado. O Brasil parou, não tem serviço, não tem trabalho.

FOLHA - A Hidroservice fechou?
MAKSOUD -
Está aberta. É a empresa holding do grupo. O que eu não aceito mais é trabalho, porque não tem trabalho. Quando vêm me oferecer trabalho, é uma porcaria, ou então tem que consorciar com cinco outras empresas. Vira um trem da alegria, uma bagunça, o diabo, isso eu não quero fazer.

FOLHA - E o seu hotel, como está o Maksoud Plaza? Ele foi símbolo de glamour.
MAKSOUD -
Foi, não. Foi, é e será. Quem fala "foi" se confunde.

domingo, 23 de dezembro de 2007

"Messianismo e o credo petista" por MARCELO O. DANTAS

Messianismo e o credo petista

MARCELO O. DANTAS


O credo petista converteu-se em um neosabbatianismo radical, alimentado por uma intelectualidade delirante que justifica o injustificável


EM MEADOS do século 17, ainda sob o impacto da expulsão dos sefarditas da península ibérica, muitos judeus passaram a ansiar pela vinda de um messias que pusesse termo aos sofrimentos do exílio, restaurando a autonomia política do povo de Israel. Movido por essa esperança, um obscuro estudioso da cabala, Sabbatai Zevi, deu início a sua pregação milenarista.
Homem de temperamento inconstante, Sabbatai logo se indispôs com os rabinos de Smyrna (atual Turquia), que o expulsaram da cidade. Após 17 anos de insucesso, o estranho místico estava prestes a desistir de tudo. Decidiu então ir a Jerusalém consultar-se com Nathan de Gaza, um jovem profeta. Foi quando teve revelada a natureza divina de sua missão. Ele (Sabbatai) era o tão aguardado messias.
A boa-nova não tardou a empolgar a diáspora judaica. Iniciava-se o ano de 1666, data prevista por alguns para o confronto do redentor (1) com a besta (666). Acompanhado por cortejo digno de um príncipe, o eleito de Iahweh rumou a Istambul, certo de que imporia sua autoridade sobre o sultão. Deu-se o oposto. Feito prisioneiro, Sabbatai esconjurou o martírio, convertendo-se ao islã. Seria o fim de qualquer empreitada sensata, não operasse o messianismo na freqüência do mito. Em lugar de causar perplexidade, a apostasia do messias passou a ser vista por seus adeptos como um "pecado santo". Segundo Abraham Miguel Cardozo, um dos mais destacados teólogos do movimento, o ato paradoxal de Sabbatai Zevi fora um sacrifício voluntário.
Por meio desse mergulho no abismo, ele chegaria ao coração do mal e ali o liqüidaria por dentro, libertando as últimas partículas de luz aprisionadas nas esferas da impureza. Entre os adeptos do sabbatianismo, duas grandes correntes se formaram.
Os moderados acreditavam que somente a alma do messias seria capaz de resistir a um contato tão estreito com as forças do mal. Enquanto não ocorresse o retorno glorioso do ungido à verdadeira fé, o povo de Israel deveria observar os preceitos morais da ortodoxia rabínica, malgrado sua natureza imperfeita e transitória.
Em contraste, a ala radical passou a defender uma modalidade exacerbada de antinomismo: todos os adeptos deveriam imitar o exemplo do messias e descer às profundezas da escuridão. Segundo o sinistro Jacob Frank, somente por meio do pecado seria possível chegar à transcendência: o advento da era messiânica reclamava a superação definitiva da ética mosaica, fundada sobre a dicotomia opressiva dos conceitos de certo e errado, bem e mal.
Semelhante heresia nunca chegou a desaparecer por completo. Suprimidos os últimos remanescentes do movimento, a idéia sabbatiana continuou a existir, em estado latente, no mundo das eternas possibilidades. Até que veio ressurgir, com roupagem secular, no Brasil do mensalão.
Não é segredo que o PT se estruturou como agremiação messiânica. Durante mais de duas décadas, seus militantes se portaram como adeptos de uma seita guerreira destinada a libertar o povo brasileiro de cinco séculos de opressão. Eles eram os puros, os eleitos, os apóstolos do Partido Messias. Mais que uma fantasia revolucionária, sua mensagem anunciava ao país a aproximação do tempo do milagre, em que o mal seria vencido e os bons enfim reinariam.
A inconsistência dessa fábula foi posta em xeque com a chegada do partido ao poder e o abandono do discurso ético que pautara sua ascensão. Curiosamente, em lugar de aceitar o desafio da realidade como estímulo ao pensamento crítico, boa parte da militância optou pelo caminho esquivo da alienação mística. Importava, acima de tudo, preservar a fé na santidade do messias. O credo petista converteu-se, assim, em um neosabbatianismo radical, alimentado por uma intelectualidade delirante, especializada em justificar o injustificável.
Marilena Chaui revelou ao mundo a teleologia da corrupção; Paulo Betti defendeu o caráter soteriológico do pecado; e o solerte Wagner Tiso abriu mão de seu coração de estudante para encavalar o espírito pragmático de Jacob Frank. O pacto com o fisiologismo e a conversão à ortodoxia econômica passaram a ser tratados como pecados santos -alianças temporárias do messias apóstata com o dragão burguês destinadas a acelerar o tempo histórico e facilitar o advento da era escatológica. Nestes tempos messiânicos, até o maná foi reinventado.
"Eles estão chegando!", anuncia-nos o senador Mercadante, enquanto nos bastidores salva o mandato do colega mercador. Hoje, os petistas aceitam tudo. Menos que alguém ouse pensar por conta própria.


MARCELO OTÁVIO DANTAS, 43, formado em ciências econômicas pela UFRJ (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro), escritor, roteirista e diplomata de carreira, é chefe da Divisão de Assuntos Multilaterais Culturais do Ministério das Relações Exteriores e autor "Podecrer!".

Os artigos publicados com assinatura não traduzem a opinião do jornal. Sua publicação obedece ao propósito de estimular o debate dos problemas brasileiros e mundiais e de refletir as diversas tendências do pensamento contemporâneo. debates@uol.com.br

sexta-feira, 21 de dezembro de 2007

Choking on Growth - Part IX: China Grabs West’s Smoke-Spewing Factories

The New York Times

December 21, 2007

China Grabs West’s Smoke-Spewing Factories

HANDAN, China — When residents of this northern Chinese city hang their clothes out to dry, the black fallout from nearby Handan Iron and Steel often sends them back to the wash.

Half a world away, neighbors of ThyssenKrupp’s former steel mill in the Ruhr Valley of Germany once had a similar problem. The white shirts men wore to church on Sundays turned gray by the time they got home.

These two steel towns have an unusual kinship, spanning 5,000 miles and a decade of economic upheaval. They have shared the same hulking blast furnace, dismantled and shipped piece by piece from Germany’s old industrial heartland to Hebei Province, China’s new Ruhr Valley.

The transfer, one of dozens since the late 1990s, contributed to a burst in China’s steel production, which now exceeds that of Germany, Japan and the United States combined. It left Germany with lost jobs and a bad case of postindustrial angst.

But steel mills spewing particulates into the air and sucking electricity from China’s coal-fired power plants account for a big chunk of the country’s surging emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide. Germany, in contrast, has cleaned its skies and is now leading the fight against global warming.

In its rush to re-create the industrial revolution that made the West rich, China has absorbed most of the major industries that once made the West dirty. Spurred by strong state support, Chinese companies have become the dominant makers of steel, coke, aluminum, cement, chemicals, leather, paper and other goods that faced high costs, including tougher environmental rules, in other parts of the world. China has become the world’s factory, but also its smokestack.

This mass shift of polluting industries has blighted China’s economic rise. Double-digit growth rates have done less to improve people’s lives when the damages to the air, land, water and human health are considered, some economists say. Outmoded production equipment will have to be replaced or retrofitted at high cost if the country intends to reduce pollution.

China’s worsening environment has also upended the geopolitics of global warming. It produces and exports so many goods once made in the West that many wealthy countries can boast of declining carbon emissions, even while the world’s overall emissions are rising quickly.

The Ruhr Valley city of Dortmund, where ThyssenKrupp once made steel, still suffers from high unemployment because of the loss of jobs to lower-cost countries like China. But Germans can buy Chinese-made iPods, washing machines and cargo ships at prices that, because of lax pollution controls, do not reflect the toll on the environment. And the outsourcing of polluting industries has given them cleaner air and water.

“It seems to me that China is making all the mistakes that we made in the 19th century,” said Wilhelm Grote, an environmental regulator in Dortmund, who recalls washing his father’s car as a child, only to see it immediately blanketed by soot. “They will find it is much more expensive to fix up later than to do it right from the start.”

Having ignored the environmental consequences of its industrial binge for years, the Communist Party leadership now says it is determined to develop a cleaner economic model. Beijing has tried to enforce ambitious — though so far unmet — targets to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.

Officials say they are especially concerned about the environmental burden of producing more than $1 trillion of goods each year for sale overseas. Of China’s total carbon emissions, which by some estimates now exceed those of the United States, just over a third are incurred in the course of making products for foreign consumers, according to the International Energy Agency, an energy policy and research group in Paris.

The country’s central planning agency recently barred purchases of some used industrial equipment from abroad, requiring companies to install newer energy-efficient systems. It has canceled many incentives devised to promote exports, especially for companies that guzzle energy and pollute heavily. Officials have warned companies that breaking environmental laws will cost them their export licenses.

“Some enterprises are abusing the environment to lower export prices,” Chen Guanglong, a Ministry of Commerce official, said in announcing a crackdown on polluters this fall. “They sell their products abroad, but the pollution is left at home.”

There are few signs, however, that Chinese officials have real regrets about becoming the world’s hub of heavy industry. Investment in new plants and equipment for steel, aluminum and cement has risen sharply even as central planners warn that the sector will get less state support. China’s steel exports to the European Union are expected to double this year from the record set in 2006.

Three hundred miles south of Beijing, the city of Handan is both a beneficiary and a victim. Hangang, as the local steel mill is called, is a government favorite, having received permission to list its shares on the stock market and expand production. That is despite the fact that, like many of China’s largest steel companies, it is in a crowded city.

Residents on the west side of Handan live in a miasma of dust and smoke that environmental authorities acknowledge contains numerous carcinogens. After public protests, the company agreed to pay an annual “pollution fee” to compensate some neighbors.

The Ruhr gets a different kind of subsidy. Germany and the European Union have committed nearly $22 billion to transform the region into a center of education, technology and tourism. Bulldozers are remaking ThyssenKrupp’s old steel mill into a terraced hillside community, with shops, restaurants and single-family homes surrounding a man-made lake.

A Faltering Leap Forward

Hangang was created by an act of Mao. In 1958, the Chinese leader spurred his people to sacrifice everything, including their pots and pans, in China’s first attempt to become a steel superpower. He called the campaign the Great Leap Forward.

Handan, an ancient but neglected city on the parched plains of southern Hebei Province, had two advantages: rich veins of coal and iron ore and easy access to a major north-south railway line.

“The ancient city of Handan must be rejuvenated as a capital of steel,” Mao proclaimed.

So next to the Handan railway station, just west of the city’s urban center, authorities erected a triumphal gate crowned with statues of heroic workers reaching for the sky. Inside, coking, sintering and smelting plants churned out crude iron and steel.

In economic terms, Hangang was not markedly more successful than the rest of the Great Leap Forward, which led to mass famine. It survived for decades on state subsidies, providing benefits for its 30,000 workers but making low-quality ferrous metals that earned poor returns.

In the 1990s, Hangang came under pressure to turn a profit. Its managers decided to start making sheet metal, for home appliances and cars, as well as their usual output of construction materials. That required a major upgrade.

Backed by state bank loans and a listing on the Shanghai stock market, Hangang embarked on an overhaul. But its ambitions far exceeded its budget. The company needed a cheap and radical solution to transform the mill.

The answer came from Europe, especially from the Ruhr Valley. The Ruhr had been the engine room of German industry since the mid-19th century. It was rich in coal and Prussian zeal.

The region’s big steel groups, Thyssen, Krupp and Mannesmann, forged the weapons for Germany’s armies and later the sheet metal for its automobiles.

But by the 1960s, Germany’s industrial golden age had begun to wane. Miners had to dig deeper to extract coal, which became uneconomical. Taxes and labor costs rose, while reunification subjected West German companies to subsidized competition from the East. Steel mills also came under heavy government pressure to install the latest environmental and efficiency controls.

“In the 1980s, we still had a dream that it was just a temporary slump and we would grow strong again,” said Michael Schwarze-Rodrian, director of the Ruhr Business Development Agency. “But pressures were too great. Our time had passed.”

Thyssen and Krupp merged their steel operations in 1997 and consolidated production in Duisburg, on the Rhine.

The Dortmund steel mills, called Phoenix, which had been among Germany’s largest since before World War II, were slated for closure, and probably the scrap heap.

That is, until Hangang got word that it could buy a relatively sophisticated German blast furnace for a small fraction of what a new one would cost.

“The reshuffle of the world steel industry gave Hangang this opportunity,” Liu Hanzhang, chairman of Hangang, told local media after he bought the Phoenix furnace in 1998. “Some people think we are a low-tech steel mill. We will become first-class.”

Germans did not have to dismantle their own industrial patrimony. Hangang sent workers to Dortmund. They labeled every part of the seven-story furnace, then disassembled it and packed it in thousands of wooden crates for the long voyage to the port of Tianjin.

“They worked day and night,” said Erwin Schneider, a spokesman for ThyssenKrupp. “They could never have done it that fast if they were governed by German labor laws.”

It was not the only such case. Hangang alone spent $800 million importing new and used equipment, according to company literature. It purchased a used ladle furnace and billet caster from Société Métallurgique de Normandie in France. It bought another secondhand blast furnace and a sinter machine from Arbed in Luxembourg.

Other Chinese companies flocked to the European fire sale, stripping Dortmund of its assets.

ThyssenKrupp sold the remaining parts of the Phoenix plant to Shagang Group, a privately run steel mill on the Yangtze River, in 2000.

And in 2003, 400 Chinese workers traveled to the Ruhr Valley and dismantled the Kaiserstuhl coking plant in Dortmund, which had been built only a few years earlier to meet exacting European environmental standards.

It now belongs to Yankuang Group, a coking company in Shandong Province.

A Loud and Dirty Business

Belching and thundering 24 hours a day, the coking, iron and steel works at Hangang cover four square miles and resemble a working museum of the industrial age. Its oldest coal-powered furnace, with its corroded, protruding shoots and shafts, might have belonged to Andrew Carnegie. The newest, part of a big expansion, uses waste heat to generate power, a technology that saves energy.

The European castoffs fell somewhere in between. It took Hangang several years to integrate this equipment into its patchwork of production lines. The Phoenix plant was christened No. 7 blast furnace. The Normandy and Luxembourg machines became part of the No. 3 steel works.

Facing stiff competition in China’s overcrowded steel industry, Hangang still does not consistently make a profit. But the shopping spree did send production surging. In the decade after 1996, its output rose 350 percent.

Shimmering yellow and raging red, Hangang’s flare stacks burn off waste gases and inflame the night sky. A fleet of diesel locomotives hauling coal shakes the farmhouses and apartment buildings that hug the plant’s outer walls. For Handan’s 8.5 million residents, and especially the tens of thousands who live in the plant’s immediate shadow, the complex is a noisome, noxious, money-spinning, job-creating leviathan.

Tian Lanxiu climbs to the roof of a neighbor’s home in Mengwu Village to survey the expanse of Hangang beyond. In the gray horizon she points out the No. 7 blast furnace — “the one the West Germans come to fix.” Nearby is a cooling plant that hisses white steam, and a coking facility that oozes yellow exhaust.

Ms. Tian said she and other villagers learned to cope with Hangang’s emissions. People do not eat outdoors, she said, to avoid having black briquettes flake their rice. If her children cannot fall asleep at night, she stuffs their ears with cotton.

Some people in Mengwu have died young, she said, often of heart disease or cancer. She has no evidence to connect their deaths to the steel mill, but says she has few doubts herself. “Hangang knocks 10 years off people’s lives,” she said. “We all want to live longer. We’re growing more aware.”

Hangang officials declined several requests to discuss production and environmental controls. But the company has said in domestic news media interviews that, along with the upgrading of its production facilities, it has installed pollution-control equipment and improved the area’s environment.

Government officials in Handan also declined to discuss the plant. But a 2006 study by the city and Tianjin University found abnormally high levels of chemicals of the benzene family attached to coal dust particulates around Handan.

Airborne concentrations of benzopyrene, a byproduct of coking that some studies have linked to lung cancer, were just below the level measured in two of the country’s most polluted industrial areas, Lanzhou and Taiyuan, and 100 times the levels measured in London, the study said.

Hangang officials once considered moving their older, more heavily polluting production lines farther west of the city. Local environmental officials told state news media in 2005 that if the steel mill did move part of its operations, sulfur dioxide levels in Handan would drop 65 percent. Hangang ultimately elected not to move its older facilities, several people who work at the mill said, because the cost was prohibitive. Instead, Hangang and Shanghai-based Baoshan Iron and Steel teamed up to build another steel mill at the new site. Hangang’s old plant remains in operation.

People who live near the plant have staged scattered protests about its pollution for years. The police have intervened and arrested some protesters. But the company has also sought to defuse unrest by giving jobs and other benefits to area residents.

Two years ago, Ms. Tian and a group of mostly older women sat on railroad tracks leading into Hangang and unfurled a banner that said, “Don’t darken our skies.” Their sit-in blocked a train. They demanded that Hangang arrange for them to move far from the plant, Ms. Tian said.

Hangang declined to do so. But it later agreed to pay them a subsidy in lieu of moving, which the villagers call a “pollution fee.”

On a wall along the village street, officials have pasted strips of baby-blue rice paper listing the names of the heads of each household and its pollution payment. Ms. Tian said she recently collected her third annual installment, totaling $140.

The Dream and Curse of Steel

China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest steel producer 10 years ago. Since then, steel production in both the United States and Germany has barely budged, while China has left them in the dust. Its mills have increased their output fivefold over the decade, to about 38 percent of the world’s total.

That is a realization of Mao’s dream. But steel has also proved a curse. China has 77 large steel mills like Hangang, and hundreds of smaller rivals. They have so much excess capacity that production of some basic steel products has become unprofitable at home and abroad. Worse, steel pollutes more than any other industry in China, perhaps in the world.

Despite a government-mandated efficiency drive, steel will use 11 percent more power this year than last, fully one-tenth of the country’s total energy supply, according to the China Iron and Steel Association.

Along with aluminum and cement, steel is the biggest reason China added 90 gigawatts of generation capacity this year, the third year in a row in which it will increase its power output by more than the total capacity of Britain. About 85 percent of those new power plants burn coal.

The International Energy Agency, which had predicted as recently as a few years ago that China’s carbon emissions would not reach those of the United States until 2020, now thinks China took the lead this year.

Chen Kexin, an economist with China’s Ministry of Commerce, said weak environmental laws and still inexpensive power, even more than low labor costs, had enabled Chinese steel makers to undercut prices elsewhere. “The shortfall of environmental protection is one of the main reasons why our exports are cheaper,” Mr. Chen said. “This is hardly an ‘edge’ that we should be proud of.”

In fact, Beijing has begun to discourage steel exports. It not only eliminated export tax rebates on many steel products in April, but also slapped an export surcharge on some. Officials expect export growth to slow.

But Mr. Chen said China now so dominated the international steel trade that any drop in its exports would raise prices abroad, keeping local steel competitive. “It could take years to restore a more normal trade balance,” he said.

The transfer of pollution to China also complicates international efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and agree on a plan to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, an issue that will be under discussion for the next two years.

One apparent benefit of China’s industrial rise is that developed countries have slowed or cut their carbon emissions, a political and environmental boon as pressure to combat climate change has increased. Even the United States, which has declined to set limits on carbon emissions, has recently shown slight declines. But the gains are illusory.

A study by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University found that if all the goods that the United States imported between 1997 and 2004 had been produced domestically, America’s carbon emissions would have been 30 percent higher.

A separate study for the European Parliament examined the transfer of steel production to China from Germany. It found that China’s less efficient steel mills, and its greater reliance on coal, meant that it emitted three times as much carbon dioxide per ton of steel as German steel producers.

From Beijing’s perspective, its exports of steel and other “carbon-intensive” products provide one more reason — along with its still moderate per capita emissions and its low standard of living — for rejecting mandatory caps on carbon emissions. Rich countries, it says, should cut their own emissions sharply and transfer technology so that China will not pollute as much as those countries did when they had their industrial booms.

Some leading environmental economists agree. “The footprint of the rich countries is very large because they lay claim to resources in other countries,” said R. Andreas Kraemer, director of the Ecologic Institute for International and European Environmental Policy in Berlin.

He and other experts say wealthy countries may have to reduce their consumption as well as their production of carbon in the future. That would oblige them to count what they import from China and elsewhere.

But that idea is notional, while heavy industry’s shift to China is inexorable.

Germany is China’s mirror image. Polluting factories have migrated abroad. Coal mining has withered. Since 1990, Germany has reduced its annual carbon emissions by 19 percent.

The Greening of Germany

Its transformation dates to the 1970s, with the first attempts to limit lead in gasoline. But it gained momentum in 1980 with the founding of the Green Party, the first environmental party to gain national prominence in Europe. In 1986, prodded partly by the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, West Germany established a ministry dedicated to protecting the environment. It had plenty to do. Germany’s forests had been badly damaged by acid rain from factories in the Ruhr. The Rhine River, which flows past the western edge of the Ruhr Valley, was devoid of marine life.

German reunification in 1990 saddled the country with East Germany’s low-grade brown coal plants, the dirtiest in Europe. Germany cleaned up the East, shutting down many low-efficiency factories, and achieved sharp reductions in carbon emissions.

Reunification also produced a new generation of green political leaders. Chancellor Angela Merkel, an eastern German physicist, entered national politics in 1994, when Helmut Kohl, then the chancellor, named her environment minister. Mrs. Merkel, who earned the nickname the “climate chancellor,” has pushed multilateral agreements to reduce carbon emissions despite stern resistance from the United States to mandatory cuts.

On Dec. 5, her government passed legislation to reduce Germany’s emissions by an additional 40 percent by 2020. “Germany wants to set an example,” she said.

Dortmund and other Ruhr cities never fully recovered jobs lost to China’s new titans of steel. The unemployment rate in the city still hovers around 15 percent, 50 percent higher than the national average.

Walter Schwalen, a 68-year-old former steelworker, points out the window of his second-floor walk-up to a yawning black pit where the Phoenix blast furnaces once roared.

He said he watched from his window as a team of Chinese workers dismantled and packed up his old workplace in 1998. “I thought, ‘Our poor Germany,’” he said. “One company after another is closing. Germany is finished.”

Yet, the Ruhr region is also a laboratory for how an industrial economy can make the transition to a post-industrial era. Once a byword for grit and grime, where drivers turned on their car headlights midmorning to see through the haze of coal smoke, it has been designated a European capital of culture for 2010.

In Essen, a depleted coal mine has been converted into a museum and performing-arts center. In Bochum, a 105-year-old gas-fired power plant is now used as a concert hall, its vaulted roof providing professional-quality acoustics.

The Ruhr is coming to grips with another legacy of its polluted past: the Emscher, a 52-mile long river that suffered the indignity of being turned into an industrial waste canal at the end of the 19th century. Germany now plans to spend $7 billion to bring it back to life. Subterranean pipes will ferry wastewater to treatment plants, returning the river to a natural state. It will be flanked by parkland, the spine of a 248-mile Industrial Heritage Trail for tourists.

Dortmund, which in 1960 had 40,000 people working in steel mills, now has barely 3,000. But there are 12,000 new jobs in information technology and 2,300 in nanotechnology, which took root here in the last five years. The region, which once had no universities, now has six, as well as eight colleges, with a total enrollment of 160,000 students.

Even the Phoenix site is rising again. The city has left two old blast furnaces there as the corroded centerpiece of what they hope will be an outdoor performing-arts complex. The government is spending $500 million to dig up soil and remove chemical residues from a half-century of steel making, clearing the way for a lake, a housing development and an office park for start-up companies.

“It took three generations to do this to the environment,” said Mr. Schwarze-Rodrian of the Ruhr Business Development Agency. “I think it’s reasonable that it will take a generation to fix.”

Joseph Kahn reported from Handan, China, and Dortmund, Germany, and Mark Landler from Dortmund. Jake Hooker and Ma Yi contributed reporting from Beijing and Handan, and Sarah Plass from Dortmund and Frankfurt.

terça-feira, 18 de dezembro de 2007

Ode ao Burguês por Mário de Andrade

Ode ao Burguês

Mário Raul de Morais Andrade

Eu insulto o burgês! O burguês-níquel,
o burguês-burguês!
A digestão bem feita de São Paulo!
O homem-curva! o homem-nádegas!
O homem que sendo francês, brasileiro, italiano,
é sempre um cauteloso pouco-a-pouco!

Eu insulto as aristocracias cautelosas!
os barões lampiões! os condes Joões! os duques zurros!
que vivem dentro de muros sem pulos,
e gemem sangues de alguns mil-réis fracos
para dizerem que as filhas da senhora falam o francês
e tocam os "Printemps" com as unhas!

Eu insulto o burguês-funesto!
O indigesto feijão com toucinho, dono das tradições!
Fora os que algarismam os amanhãs!
Olha a vida dos nossos setembros!
Fará Sol? Choverá? Arlequinal!
Mas à chuva dos rosais o êxtase fará sempre Sol!

Morte à gordura!
Morte às adiposidades cerebrais
Morte ao burguês-mensal!
ao burguês-cinema! ao burguês-tílburi!
Padaria Suissa! Morte viva ao Adriano!
"_ Ai, filha, que te darei pelos teus anos?
_ Um colar... _ Conto e quinhentos!!!
Mas nós morremos de fome!"

Come! Come-te a ti mesmo, oh! gelatina pasma!
Oh! purée de batatas morais!
Oh! cabelos nas ventas! oh! carecas!
Ódio aos temperamentos regulares!
Ódio aos relógios musculares! Morte à infâmia!
Ódio à soma! Ódio aos secos e molhados!
Ódio aos sem desfalecimentos nem arrependimentos,
sempiternamente as mesmices convencionais!
De mãos nas costas! Marco eu o compasso! Eia!
Dois a dois! Primeira posição! Marcha!
Todos para a Central do meu rancor inebriante!

Ódio e insulto! Ódio e raiva! Ódio e mais ódio!
Morte ao burguês de giolhos,
cheirando religião e que não crê em Deus!
Ódio vermelho! Ódio fecundo! Ódio cíclico!
Ódio fundamento, sem perdão!

Fora! Fu! Fora o bom burguês!...

sábado, 15 de dezembro de 2007

Choking on Growth - Part VIII: In China, Farming Fish in Toxic Waters

The New York Times

December 15, 2007

In China, Farming Fish in Toxic Waters

FUQING, China — Here in southern China, beneath the looming mountains of Fujian Province, lie dozens of enormous ponds filled with murky brown water and teeming with eels, shrimp and tilapia, much of it destined for markets in Japan and the West.

Fuqing is one of the centers of a booming industry that over two decades has transformed this country into the biggest producer and exporter of seafood in the world, and the fastest-growing supplier to the United States.

But that growth is threatened by the two most glaring environmental weaknesses in China: acute water shortages and water supplies contaminated by sewage, industrial waste and agricultural runoff that includes pesticides. The fish farms, in turn, are discharging wastewater that further pollutes the water supply.

“Our waters here are filthy,” said Ye Chao, an eel and shrimp farmer who has 20 giant ponds in western Fuqing. “There are simply too many aquaculture farms in this area. They’re all discharging water here, fouling up other farms.”

Farmers have coped with the toxic waters by mixing illegal veterinary drugs and pesticides into fish feed, which helps keep their stocks alive yet leaves poisonous and carcinogenic residues in seafood, posing health threats to consumers.

Environmental degradation, in other words, has become a food safety problem, and scientists say the long-term risks of consuming contaminated seafood could lead to higher rates of cancer and liver disease and other afflictions.

No one is more vulnerable to these health risks than the Chinese, because most of the seafood in China stays at home. But foreign importers are also worried. In recent years, the European Union and Japan have imposed temporary bans on Chinese seafood because of illegal drug residues. The United States blocked imports of several types of fish this year after inspectors detected traces of illegal drugs linked to cancer.

This week, officials from the United States and China signed an agreement in Beijing to improve oversight of Chinese fish farms as part of a larger deal on food and drug safety.

Yet regulators in both countries are struggling to keep contaminated seafood out of the market. China has shut down seafood companies accused of violating the law and blacklisted others, while United States regulators are concentrating on Chinese seafood for special inspections.

Fuqing (pronounced foo-CHING) is at the top of the list this year for refused shipments of seafood from China, with 43 rejections through November, according to records kept by the United States Food and Drug Administration. All of those rejections involved the use of illegal veterinary drugs.

By comparison, Thailand, also a major exporter of seafood to the United States, had only two refusals related to illegal veterinary drugs. China as a whole had 210 refusals for illegal drugs.

“For 50 years,” said Wang Wu, a professor at Shanghai Fisheries University, “we’ve blindly emphasized economic growth. The only pursuit has been G.D.P., and now we can see that the water turns dirty and the seafood gets dangerous. Every year, there are food safety and environmental pollution accidents.”

Environmental problems plaguing seafood would appear to be a bad omen for the industry. But with fish stocks in the oceans steadily declining and global demand for seafood soaring, farmed seafood, or aquaculture, is the future. And no country does more of it than China, which produced about 115 billion pounds of seafood last year.

China produces about 70 percent of the farmed fish in the world, harvested at thousands of giant factory-style farms that extend along the entire eastern seaboard of the country. Farmers mass-produce seafood just offshore, but mostly on land, and in lakes, ponds, rivers and reservoirs, or in huge rectangular fish ponds dug into the earth.

“They’ll be a major supplier not just to the U.S., but to the world,” said Richard Stavis, the chairman of Stavis Seafoods, an American company that imports Chinese catfish, tilapia and frog legs.

China began emerging as a seafood power in the 1990s as rapid economic growth became the top priority in the country. But environmental experts say that headlong pursuit of higher gross domestic product has devastated Chinese water quality and endangered the country’s food supply. In Guangdong Province in southern China, fish contaminated with toxic chemicals like DDT are already creating health problems.

“There are heavy metals, mercury and flame retardants in fish samples we’ve tested,” said Ming Hung Wong, a professor of biology at Hong Kong Baptist University. “We’ve got to stop the pollutants entering the food system.”

More than half of the rivers in China are too polluted to serve as a source of drinking water. The biggest lakes in the country regularly succumb to harmful algal blooms. Seafood producers are part of the problem, environmental experts say. Enormous aquaculture farms concentrate fish waste, pesticides and veterinary drugs in their ponds and discharge the contaminated water into rivers, streams and coastal areas, often with no treatment.

“Water is the biggest problem in China,” said Peter Leedham, the business manager at Sino Analytica, an independent food safety testing firm that works with companies that buy from China. “But my feeling is China will deal with it, because it has to. It just won’t be a quick process.”

Fishing for Prosperity

Fuqing is called qiaoxiang, or home, for those who go overseas, because for decades this port city on the East China Sea is where thousands of people fled as stowaways.

In the 1980s, some emigrants began sending home money and ideas at just about the time that investors were arriving from Japan and Taiwan, promising to help the country build fish farms.

“Aquaculture was popular in Japan, so I saw the future,” said Wang Weifu, a longtime eel producer.

Thousands of peasants who had struggled to earn a living harvesting rice and potatoes began carving up huge plots, digging rectangular pits and filling them with water to create fish ponds. Other parts of the country followed, creating fish farms alongside roads, near rivers and streams and in big lakes, ponds and reservoirs.

Today, the mighty Yangtze River is lined with fish farms. Historic Lake Tai is stocked with crab pens. Near Ningde, 90 miles north of here, thousands of people live in a huge bay area, where they float on large wooden rafts, feeding and harvesting caged fish, like the yellow croaker.

The government hoped the building boom would lift millions out of poverty. And it did. There are now more than 4.5 million fish farmers in China, according to the Fishery Bureau.

Lin Bingui, 50, is one of them, a former bricklayer with an easy smile who now manages 20 enormous shrimp and eel ponds in western Fuqing, on reclaimed land with access to a narrow strait of seawater.

“This doesn’t take a lot of technology,” he said while walking into an indoor pond, where he raises baby eels. “You just learn it as you go along.”

The boom did more than create jobs. It made China the only country that produced more seafood from fish farms than from the sea. It also helped feed an increasingly prosperous population, a longstanding challenge in China.

Many growers here struck it rich as well, people like Lin Sunbao, whose 25-year-old son is now studying at Cambridge University in England. “My best years were 1992, ’93, ’94,” he said. “I only had one aqua farm, and I earned over $500,000 a year.”

As early as the mid-1990s, though, serious environmental problems began to emerge after electronics and textile manufacturing plants moved into central Fuqing. Water shortages appeared in the southeastern part of the city, and some fish farmers say their water turned black.

Government records document the environmental ills in the region. The nearby Dongzhang Reservoir, a water source for agriculture and more than 700,000 people, was recently rated level 5, near the bottom of the government scale, unfit for fish farming, swimming or even contact with the human body.

The Long River, the major waterway in Fuqing, has been degraded by waste dumped by paper factories and slaughterhouses. The government this year rated large sections of the river below level 5, or so highly polluted that it is unfit for any use. And nearby coastal waters which are also heavily fish farmed are polluted with oil, lead, mercury and copper, according to the State Environmental Protection Administration in China.

As water quality in Fuqing declined, farmers who often filled their ponds with too much seafood tried to fight off disease and calm stressed fish with an array of powerful, and often illegal, antibiotics and pesticides.

Eel producers, for example, often used nitrofuran to kill bacteria. But that antibiotic has been banned for use in animal husbandry in the United States, Europe, Japan, and even China, because it has caused cancer in laboratory rats.

Importers of Chinese seafood quickly caught on. In recent years, eel shipments to Europe, Japan and the United States have been turned back or destroyed because of residues of banned veterinary drugs. Eel shipments to Japan have dropped 50 percent through August of this year, dealing a heavy blow in Fuqing.

Chinese farmers say they have stopped using the banned medicines, and have suffered a 30 percent decline in survival rates of their fish and other seafood.

“Before 2005, we did use drugs blindly. They were very effective in fighting disease,” said Wang Weifu, chairman of a local eel association, noting that drug residues might still be in the water. “But now we don’t dare because of the regulations.”

Some growers have lashed out at Japan, arguing that it keeps raising the drug residue standard simply to protect its own eel farms against competition. But growers here say buyers from Japan will eventually be forced to purchase eels from China.

“Our market will expand in Russia and Southeast Asia, and the E.U.,” Mr. Wang said. “Also, we see big prospects in the Chinese market. In five or six years, as we transfer our export destinations, Japan will be begging us.”

Retreating From the Coast

The drive about 175 miles west of Fuqing leads into the lush subtropical mountains of Fujian Province, where some of China’s richest bamboo and timber reserves can be found. There, near the city of Sanming, Fuqing eel producers have built a collection of aquaculture farms, huge cement tubs wedged into the mountainside, covered by black tarps and stocked with millions of eels.

“This costs a lot more up here, but we had to do it,” said Zheng Qiuzhen, a longtime Fuqing eel producer who now operates near Sanming. “We had to do something about the water problems.”

In much of the country, seafood growers are leaving crowded coastal areas for less developed regions, where the land is cheaper and there is cleaner water. But they say the overall cost of doing business so far from the coast is higher, given the expense of shipping the fish in oxygenated trucks to the processing plant in Fuqing and their forswearing illegal drugs, which lowers survival rates and increases the growth period of most fish to five years from three years.

“You can’t find many places as beautiful as this, covered by trees and bamboo,” said Lin Sunbao, who moved from Fuqing to Sanming. “We use water from mountain streams. And because our water is better, it’s harder to get disease.”

This is one of the solutions to the water crisis in China: to seek out virgin territory and essentially start the cycle all over again. And that worries scientists, who say aquaculture in China is not just a victim of water pollution but a culprit with a severe environmental legacy.

Industrial fish farming has destroyed mangrove forests in Thailand, Vietnam and China, heavily polluted waterways and radically altered the ecological balance of coastal areas, mostly through the discharge of wastewater. Aquaculture waste contains fish feces, rotting fish feed and residues of pesticides and veterinary drugs as well as other pollutants that were already mixed into the poor quality water supplied to farmers.

Besides algal blooms, some of the biggest lakes in China, like Lake Tai, are suffering from eutrophication nutrient bombs, brought on partly by aquaculture, that can kill fish by depleting the water’s oxygen. The government is forcing aquaculture out of these lakes, and also away from the Long River in Fuqing.

Places like Sanming may not be pristine for long. Heavy industry is moving in, lured by mineral riches and incentives from local governments, which are pushing for development.

And Sanming already has 72 giant eel farms, producing 5,000 tons of seafood a year. Those farms together use about 280 million gallons of water a day and then discharge the wastewater the following day, back into the Sanming environs.

There are efforts to operate aquaculture in a sustainable way. In Norway, for instance, salmon producers use sophisticated technology, including underwater cameras, to monitor water quality and how much fish feed is actually consumed. But nothing like this is being done in China, and specialists like Li Sifa of Shanghai Fisheries University insist that Chinese regulations are too lax and that enforcement efforts are often feeble or nonexistent.

The government has stepped up its inspections of fish farms and seafood processing plants here, alerting workers of the dangers and consequences of using illegal drugs. But the drugs have remained a problem, partly because of poor water quality.

A possible solution to the water woes is to move aquaculture well out to sea, specialists say, with new technology that allows for deepwater fish cages served by automatic feeding machines.

The United States is already considering such a plan, partly as a way to make it less dependent on imports, which now fill 80 percent of its seafood needs. China is also considering adopting what is now being called “open ocean” aquaculture.

Currently, China’s coastal fish farms face many of the same challenges as those on land. Waters there are heavily polluted by oil, lead, mercury, copper and other harsh substances. Veterinary drugs dropped in shoreline waters may easily spread to neighboring aquaculture farms and affect species outside the cages, and while coastal waters are less polluted than those on land, aquaculture farms, with their intensive production cycles, are prone to be polluters.

Still, said An Taicheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: “China has to go to the sea because it’s getting harder and harder to find clean water. Every year there are seafood safety problems. One day, no one will dare to eat fish from dirty water, and what will farmers do?”

Chen Yang contributed research from Shanghai and Fuqing.

sábado, 8 de dezembro de 2007

Choking on Growth - Part VII: Trucks Power China’s Economy, at a Suffocating Cost

The New York Times

December 8, 2007

Trucks Power China’s Economy, at a Suffocating Cost

GUANGZHOU, China — Every night, columns of hulking blue and red freight trucks invade China’s major cities with a reverberating roar of engines and dark clouds of diesel exhaust so thick it dims headlights.

By daybreak in this sprawling metropolis in southeastern China, residents near thoroughfares who leave their windows open overnight find their faces stiff with a dark layer of diesel soot.

After Mary Leung opens her tiny open-air shop along a major road soon after dawn, she must wipe the soot off her countertops and tables; the tiny yellow-and-olive bird that has kept her company is harder to clean.

Trucks are the mules of this country’s spectacularly expanding economy — ubiquitous and essential, yet highly noxious.

Trucks here burn diesel fuel contaminated with more than 130 times the pollution-causing sulfur that the United States allows in most diesel. While car sales in China are now growing even faster than truck sales, trucks are by far the largest source of street-level pollution.

Tiny particles of sulfur-laden soot penetrate deep into residents’ lungs, interfering with the absorption of oxygen. Nitrogen oxides from truck exhaust, which build all night because cities limit truck traffic by day, bind each morning with gasoline fumes from China’s growing car fleet to form dense smog that inflames lungs and can cause severe coughing and asthma.

The 10 million trucks on Chinese roads, more than a quarter of all vehicles in this country, are a major reason that China accounts for half the world’s annual increase in oil consumption. Sating their thirst helped push the price of oil to nearly $100 a barrel this year, before a recent decline, and has propelled China past the United States as the world’s largest emitter of global-warming gases.

Yet cleaning up truck pollution presents complex problems for China’s leaders.

For instance, regulators have begun raising emissions standards for new trucks, but have left millions of older ones belching black smoke. Forcing businesses and farmers to buy more expensive vehicles could put a drag on the economy, which already faces inflationary pressure from rising food prices and other costs.

That fear of inflation — not to mention political and social unrest — has led Beijing to prevent the country’s mostly state-owned oil companies from increasing diesel prices at the pump in pace with global oil prices. Raising fuel prices for farmers, whose incomes have lagged behind those of city dwellers and who need diesel for their tractors, is one concern. Lower diesel prices also essentially subsidize every manufacturer in China’s elaborate export machine.

But price controls create a vicious circle. Oil giants like Sinopec, losing money on every gallon of diesel they refine because of the low sales prices, upgrade refineries slowly, if at all. And they seek out cheap crude, which has high levels of sulfur, to make diesel, negating the effects of higher emissions standards for new vehicles.

“Sinopec is trying our best to purchase low-quality crudes — much heavier and more sulfur content,” said Evan Jia, a Sinopec spokesman. “We buy those kinds of crudes to lower the purchasing cost.”

Low diesel prices frequently make trucks more cost-effective than trains, which pollute less. Sales of large freight trucks in China outpace those in the United States by a wide margin. Demand for diesel at service stations is so great, and supplies are so tight, that rationing and shortages have become common. Truck drivers idle for hours only to be allowed to buy as little as five gallons of fuel.

Since 2000, sales of heavy-duty trucks have risen sixfold while car sales have risen eightfold. This has created myriad problems, from gridlock that chokes China’s cities to pollution that chokes its citizens, contributing each year to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths from heart and lung problems, according to the World Bank.

Working in the Fumes

Ms. Leung, the shopkeeper, is a slender, tidy, 44-year-old woman with a cheery disposition. She used to keep her little bird in a wooden cage over the entrance to the two battered plastic tables where she serves soft drinks and fresh waffles for less than 40 cents each.

All day, trucks, buses and cars grind past. While large trucks are banned in Guangzhou from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m., some obtain special permits for daytime access. And many medium-size trucks with diesel engines are allowed in the city during the day if they carry local license plates.

“We had to put out bowls of water in the cage,” Ms. Leung said, so the bird could constantly wash itself. She finally moved the bird, a Pekin robin, to her home on a quieter street.

She tries not to think about what the exhaust fumes are doing to her own health.

“My throat hurts all the time,” she said. “I suck on throat lozenges for it. It’s unbearable.”

International experts say that hundreds of millions of Chinese are exposed every day to the potentially lethal mix of soot particles and smog.

American regulators have labeled diesel soot a likely carcinogen. A growing body of academic literature blames tiny airborne particles from diesel exhaust, coal-fired power plants and other sources for up to 90 percent of all deaths from outdoor air pollution, because the particles penetrate so deeply into lungs. Diesel engines also emit large quantities of nitrogen oxides, which react with gasoline fumes to produce photochemical smog when hit by sunlight.

Mainland Chinese atmospheric scientists concluded in an analysis this year in The Journal of Environmental Sciences that, here in Guangzhou, particles were the pollutant farthest out of line with air-quality norms 226 days a year. Sulfur dioxide, which comes mainly from burning coal, was the pollutant that exceeded norms by the widest margin 45 days a year, while nitrogen oxides were the most prominent pollutant 23 days a year.

The air was relatively clean on the remaining 71 days a year.

New tests by Chinese and American researchers in Tianjin, in northeastern China, found that diesel engines in trucks and buses accounted for 93 percent of all nitrogen oxides from vehicles in China and 97 percent of particles.

A separate academic study of diesel exhaust here in Guangzhou found that Chinese trucks put out particles in unusually large quantities and sizes, as engines with often inadequate or damaged emissions equipment were forced to pull overweight loads.

Ms. Leung said she had little choice but to stick it out.

She and her husband had a shop on a less-busy street, but the building was torn down and the local government gave her the current lease as a substitute. They are not allowed to sell the lease or apply for a different one, and the shop is their sole means of support for two daughters, the elder one the first in the family to go to college.

The only option, Ms. Leung said, is to hope that her building will be condemned so the city will issue her a lease in a more healthful location. “I’m dreaming of it,” she said.

Poor Fuel in Dirty Trucks

In nearby Shenzhen, Chan Kin-fun also faces economic realities.

A salesman shows Mr. Chan, the operations manager of a Hong Kong trucking company, around the towering tractor cabs at a Sinotruk dealership. Even the most modern cabs have engines that emit at least three times the levels of nitrogen oxides of new American trucks and at least seven times the particles — even with clean, low-sulfur diesel.

Building a truck that meets top emissions standards is not just a question of spending a little extra on pollution-control equipment. It usually requires radical engine redesigns, which can add thousands of dollars to the price.

A truck meeting the European Union’s existing Euro 4 pollution standard, which Beijing’s municipal government will adopt in January, would have to be ordered specially from the factory, the salesman said. And it would cost $35,000, compared with $27,000 for a truck meeting the more lenient Euro 3 standard now in effect for Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Trucks conforming to the Euro 2 standard, still legally sold in much of China, would cost only $23,000, and a “special fee” of $950, the Sinotruk salesman said, to conceal the truck’s origin in an area where only Euro 3 trucks are supposed to be sold.

But none of this helps Mr. Chan. Hong Kong already requires him to buy Euro 4 trucks, and this puts him at a disadvantage against mainland trucking companies that use cheaper vehicles.

“I don’t know how much longer I’ll be able to stay in business,” he said.

One reason China has severe air pollution is that officials have been slow to impose that extra cost. Trucks in the United States, which has the stiffest diesel emissions standards in the world, typically cost at least twice as much as a Euro 3 truck of similar power in China, partly because of higher labor costs, but also because their engines emit less pollution.

The Chinese government has lagged about eight years behind the European Union in imposing new emissions standards. Only as air pollution has started to become a national issue has China begun to accelerate the pace; Euro 4 standards will take effect nationwide in 2010, five years after they took effect in the European Union.

But the opportunities for further improvements in emissions per vehicle are limited by poor fuel quality.

The United States allows maximum sulfur concentrations of just 15 parts per million for most diesel fuels, while China allows up to 2,000 parts per million. The average sulfur in American gasoline is limited to 30 parts per million; China allows up to 800 parts per million.

Sulfur clogs emissions control equipment, and the more advanced the equipment, the more vulnerable it is to sulfur damage. And China lacks an effective inspection system to enforce even its more lenient standards.

The cleaner fuel available in cities like Guangzhou and Beijing helps limit car pollution. But truck drivers tend to fill up in rural areas with less expensive high-sulfur fuel.

Western refineries pay extra for low-sulfur crude because removing sulfur is difficult. But in a bid to control inflation, the Chinese government orders service stations to sell gasoline and diesel at prices so low that they frequently fall below refiners’ costs.

That gives refiners like Sinopec a strong incentive to buy the cheapest possible crude. Mr. Jia, the spokesman, said the company then refined the crude to meet China’s standards. Low diesel prices also leave oil company refinery divisions with little money to invest in modernization.

The Chinese government raised regulated prices of gasoline and diesel by nearly 10 percent on Nov. 1, to the yuan equivalent of $2.65 a gallon. But that still roughly equals the wholesale price of diesel on international markets and is slightly higher than the wholesale price of gasoline, leaving nothing to cover the cost of distributing fuel to service stations, not to mention profit.

So refineries and service stations have been cutting back on sales, to the dismay of truckers.

Behind Wheel, a Hard Life

After four years of coping with diesel shortages every few months, Zhang Yanchao, a 33-year-old trucker, thought he had become inured to lining up for fuel. But that was before he waited 10 hours on a recent night outside Guangzhou and was then allowed to buy just a quarter-tank of diesel.

“It’s the worst I’ve ever seen,” he said. “I couldn’t get any sleep since I had to keep moving forward in the line of trucks all night long.”

Two dozen truckers said in interviews here in Guangzhou and in Shenzhen that fuel shortages had become chronic. The shortages also contribute to air pollution, with trucks idling for hours as they wait in line.

Rapid highway construction has reduced travel time in much of China. A half-dozen truckers who regularly drive from Shandong province, 1,000 miles northeast of Guangzhou, said that what had been a three-day trip five years ago took only two days this past summer, thanks to the new expressways. But they said long waits for fuel had since lengthened the trip to four days.

The journeys are tough on drivers’ health, as they breathe the exhaust of the trucks ahead of them.

“When a truck driver is not eating rice, he’s eating diesel,” said Mr. Zhang over a dinner of rice and vegetables at a grimy cafe here as his brakes were repaired.

Wearing blue jeans and a dark pullover and chain-smoking cigarettes, like many of the truck drivers here, Mr. Zhang was frank about both the problems truckers face and the problems their vehicles create.

Overweight trucks damage roads and emit extra pollution. But Mr. Zhang said he frequently exceeded weight limits on his blue five-month-old Chunlan truck.

“But of course I put more on it,” he said. “Otherwise, how could I make a living?” With his pay based on how much cargo he hauls, he estimated that he typically carried two to three times his truck’s legal limit.

Time on the road is hard on relationships, too. Mr. Zhang has a wife and a year-old daughter. But he takes another woman with him on many of his trips as a second “wife,” he said, insisting that his legal wife accepted the arrangement.

He acknowledged that the diesel exhaust was probably not good for him, and said many truck drivers developed coughs. “Coughing comes with old age, but driving a truck makes it worse,” he said. “But coughing can come from these cigarettes as well.”

Oil industry experts suggest that China should raise diesel prices by at least 20 percent to eliminate subsidies and fuel lines and to foster refinery investment. Mr. Zhang, who pays the equivalent of $680 a month on his truck loan, vehemently opposes an increase in diesel prices; he is convinced that he would not be able to pass on the extra cost to the manufacturers who hire him.

“That would be too much for me,” he said. “I would be put out of business. I might as well stay home.”

One response to China’s truck-pollution problem would be to ban older trucks. But the government has resisted such a radical step, fearing the costs not just to the economy, but to the truckers and to members of their extended families, who typically pool their savings to finance a truck.

Another obstacle to change may be the lack of public criticism of truck pollution. While environmental groups are rapidly multiplying in China, vehicle pollution has attracted little attention — and much resignation among truckers and residents alike.

Mr. Zhang typified that reaction when he said, surveying the dingy truck stop, “If you don’t like pollution, go live in the mountains.”